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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 58

New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(12:57) 6-J.Gillan punts 49 yards to WAS 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 58, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP