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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Giants
4th & 5 at the 32
New York Giants 14 – Washington Commanders 9
What Actually Happened
(3:15) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.
The Three Options
GO
+0.77 EP
Model's Pick
-
40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.25 EP
- 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP
KICK
+0.59 EP
What Happened
- 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
- 29% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT
-0.22 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
