4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 94

New York Giants 17 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(:36) 6-J.Gillan punts 56 yards to WAS 38, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 15-D.Milne to WAS 42 for 4 yards (84-M.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth -0.09 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 52, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model