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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 34

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(8:44) 5-T.Way punts 27 yards to NYG 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 80-R.James to NYG 30 for 23 yards (47-K.Hudson; 39-J.Reaves).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.76 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.83 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP