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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 42

New York Giants 17 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to WAS 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.64 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP