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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 32

New York Giants 17 – Washington Commanders 12

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-G.Gano 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.28 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.02 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model