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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 56

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 38 yards to WAS 18, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 15-D.Milne.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.10 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP