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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model