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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 66 yards to LAC 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-D.Carter pushed ob at LAC 18 for 13 yards (86-K.Rader).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.25 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP