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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 44

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 16-J.Scott punts 31 yards to TEN 13, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.69 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model