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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 33

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 14-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.91 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.62 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model