4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 16 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:30) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 61 yards to LAC 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 1-D.Carter ran ob at LAC 15 for 10 yards (54-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.10 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model