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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen to TEN 16 for 4 yards (99-R.Weaver).

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.07 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 20, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model