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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 16-J.Scott punts 54 yards to TEN 26, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.92 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 37, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model