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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 54

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 42 yards to LAC 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-25-H.Haskins.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.18 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model