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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 79

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(12:31) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to TEN 37, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.10 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP