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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(13:10) 11-J.Stout punts 41 yards to ATL 12, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.27 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 53, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP