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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 16

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 7-Y.Koo 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model