Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 5 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(1:54) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to BAL 32, Center-48-L.McCullough. 3-J.Proche to BAL 37 for 5 yards (48-L.McCullough; 53-N.Kwiatkoski). PENALTY on ATL-12-K.Hodge, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 37.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.14 EP
53% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model