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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 1

Atlanta Falcons 6 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(6:49) 25-T.Allgeier left end to BAL 2 for -1 yards (94-I.Mack). Penalty on ATL-46-P.Hesse, Illegal Motion, declined.

The Three Options

GO +3.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 1, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model