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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(6:39) 13-B.Pinion punts 33 yards to BAL 43, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 3-J.Proche.

The Three Options

GO -2.85 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.62 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model