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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:48) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is BLOCKED (92-A.Ogundeji), Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout, recovered by BAL-86-N.Boyle at ATL 40.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.10 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model