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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 25

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(7:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 41-M.Brown up the middle to DEN 23 for 2 yards (96-E.Uwazurike).

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.58 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model