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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 12

Los Angeles Rams 31 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 8-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-11-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.18 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model