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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 16

Miami Dolphins 17 – Green Bay Packers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:23) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.02 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model