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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 82

Green Bay Packers 10 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to MIA 36, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 11-C.Wilson. PENALTY on GB-45-E.Wilson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 36.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 40, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model