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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 10 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 9-C.Watson to MIA 30 for 10 yards (21-E.Rowe).

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.93 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.72 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model