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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 10 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(:07) 2-M.Crosby 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.55 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 38, worth -0.16 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model