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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 69

Green Bay Packers 13 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(13:07) (No Huddle) 12-A.Rodgers up the middle to GB 33 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins; 52-E.Roberts).

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.42 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model