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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 28

Miami Dolphins 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 7-J.Sanders 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.64 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP