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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 30

Miami Dolphins 20 – Green Bay Packers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.87 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.52 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.22 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model