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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 18

Green Bay Packers 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(9:30) 2-M.Crosby 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.81 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 28, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model