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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 8

Green Bay Packers 23 – Miami Dolphins 20

What Actually Happened

(2:06) 2-M.Crosby 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-56-J.Coco, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +3.89 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model