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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 1

Green Bay Packers 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(4:14) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 89-M.Lewis for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 1, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model