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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 7 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(:20) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 36 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-46-M.Cox.

The Three Options

GO -0.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 45, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model