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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 58

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.63 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model