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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 44

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

What Actually Happened

(7:46) 7-B.Mann punts 32 yards to JAX 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.85 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -1.92 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model