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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 27

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:58) 10-R.Patterson 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.09 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 27, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP