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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 79

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 13

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 7-B.Mann punts 51 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.42 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 36, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model