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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 13 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(7:09) 10-R.Patterson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model