Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 17 at the 67

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

(5:09) 7-B.Mann punts 27 yards to JAX 40, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at JAX 40.

The Three Options

GO -1.95 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model