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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 25

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(12:54) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass short left to 17-G.Wilson to JAX 21 for 4 yards (32-T.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.49 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model