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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 13

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 16

What Actually Happened

(10:27) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass incomplete short right to 17-G.Wilson [49-A.Key].

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.04 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.49 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model