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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 6 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 16 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 9-L.Cooke punts 38 yards to NYJ 1, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-6-C.Claybrooks.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP