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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 34

New York Jets 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 19

What Actually Happened

(1:40) (Shotgun) 15-C.Streveler pass incomplete deep left to 17-G.Wilson (32-T.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.00 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.05 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP