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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 27

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 7-C.McLaughlin 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model