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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 57

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to IND 15, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 33-D.Flowers.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.04 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 57, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 17, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP