Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 67

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

(3:00) 6-M.Haack punts 53 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 1-D.Carter MUFFS catch, touched at LAC 17, ball out of bounds at LAC 18.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model