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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 42

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 16-J.Scott punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.33 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 42, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP