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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 9 at the 54

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to LAC 48 for 6 yards (23-B.Callahan; 49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.17 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 54, worth -1.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model